A revolutionary investigation by the University of Liverpool has revealed that the memory of the North Atlantic Ocean can span between 10 and 20 years.
This insight is critical for the enhancement of climate predictability and the precision of climate forecasting models.
Exploring the Depths of Ocean History
The concept of ocean memory relates to how long oceanic conditions can influence future states, which is crucial for forecasting climate changes. The prevailing assumption held that ocean memory lasted a few years, but researchers from Liverpool have now shown that the ocean’s memory may extend up to two decades. Their approach involved observing and following the oceanic temperature changes that result from extraordinary atmospheric events, which consequently led to the discovery of this prolonged memory.
Dr. Hemant Khatri, who spearheaded the research, noted, “Our study tackles the very essence of what we mean by ocean memory. By uncovering the mechanisms that underpin extended multi-year ocean memory, we provide a new framework that will lead to enhancements in the evaluation of climate models.” Their research suggests that oceans retain their climatic state far longer than previously believed, influencing both local and global air temperatures for well over a decade.
Professor Ric Williams, a contributing author, pointed to the disparity between their findings and those produced by contemporary climate models: “While modern climate models gauge ocean memory at about 8-10 years, our empirical evidence suggests a much longer span.” This study proposes that monitoring variations in ocean temperatures could substantially refine climate predictions for the upcoming ten years or more.
The findings, published in “Geophysical Research Letters,” are the outcome of a collaborative effort between the University of Liverpool, the University of Oxford, and the UK Met Office, supported by the UKRI NERC. The research not only challenges pre-existing notions within climate models but also forges a path for more nuanced and accurate predictions, bridging the gap between oceanographic studies and climate science..
